What SpaceX and Rai stones have in common
The island of Yap in Micronesia is famous for its large stone discs, called Rai stones. Once serving as currency on the island, they are still used for ceremonial occasions today. The stones varied in size, but most were so large that they were difficult to move; the largest weighs four metric tonnes. At about 400 years old, these stones are relatively modern when compared to the ancient stone circles at Stonehenge or Callanish in Scotland, which could date back some 5,000 years. The Rai stones were imported to Yap from a “nearby” Pacific Island that was an 800km round trip away, accessible only by canoe, ensuring their scarcity and serving as a form of “proof of work”.
The Rai stones cannot be carried around like a bank note, so the islanders came to a compromise. These valuable stones remained in place, while ownership changed through mutual verbal agreement among islanders. There is even a case of a stone that slipped off a raft and sank but retaining its value because all the islanders agreed its rough location and value.
This may sound bizarre to a modern reader, but the underlying concepts are surprisingly familiar if you follow the art market. How can we attach value to some artists when it can be difficult to see their artistic merit? British artist Grayson Perry answers that question in his book Playing to the Gallery (2014). He sees that a consensus emerges over the worth of an artist’s work with experts – critics, galleries, academics and dealers all playing a role. An ecosystem and narrative builds around the artist that deems her art valuable.
A good example is the work of graffiti artist Banksy. His art is very simple, but highly collectable because of the narrative that has grown around him. His humour, mystique and anti-establishment stance all contribute to his popularity and the high price for his original art. This parallels the Rai stones: the stones and the art have no practical use, but value is constructed through shared belief. The same could be said of other things. The proof of work and validation process of Bitcoin is very similar to the Rai stones of Yap or even Banksy’s art. All are desirable because we have come to a consensus that they have value.
The financial markets also share similarities to Yap and the art market. We do not know what will happen in the future, so we have constructed narratives and conventions to help us. We price a bond using many assumptions, some obvious, like whether it will default, but also some less obvious ones. For instance, we assume that all coupons paid by a bond, that may go on for many years into the future, can all be reinvested at today’s interest rate. We know that interest rates will fluctuate, but we make this assumption by convention to help us bring sense to the future. Given a set of assumptions, we can then arrive at a reasonable estimate about its value.
Analysts say the price of a stock is the present value of its future dividends. When valuing the drug company Eli Lilly, say, analysts often assume that its broader drug portfolio will go on generating profits into perpetuity even though we know that its hit drugs like Mounjaro (diabetes) and Verzenio (breast cancer) will lose their patent exclusivity in less than 10 years. We assume that Eli Lilly will find new drugs to replace the lost profits from drugs going off patent. This is not an unreasonable assumption as Eli Lilly has a good track record of finding new drugs and we can adjust our assumptions to reflect some uncertainty about the future.
In the coming months, there is speculation that SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could pursue IPOs. However, it is very difficult to estimate a fair price for these stocks given their short histories, cash demands and uncertain and difficult-to-model future prospects. Much like Rai stones or the art market, these companies have been very successful at building a narrative about themselves and their future. They have co-opted experts in social media, brokers and merchant banks to ensure there is widespread validation and interest, not that Elon Musk needs much support in building a narrative.
Although the market capitalisation of these companies could be huge (the “Magnificent Seven” could become the “Titanic Ten”) these companies are restricting the initial amount of stock that is sold into the stock market to create scarcity – much like Rai stones or an original artist’s signature. The early scramble for scarce stock is designed to create a first day pop in the stock price which will add to the narrative and create investor FOMO.
The marketing should not detract from the potential of these companies. The total addressable market (TAM) for OpenAI and Anthropic is worldwide and the TAM for SpaceX is to infinity and beyond. Possibly. These companies have a short track record of excellent execution, and they are demonstrating incredible sales growth. Anthropic, for instance, has grown its revenues from $87m annualised in early 2024 to $30bn in April 2026.
The proposed IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic have drawn some criticism as their business models are unproven and their cash requirements are huge, but the narrative is of unbounded promise. Some will invest because of this potential, others for proximity to Elon Musk and others will invest because they feel forced to because the companies could be a major part of the big indexes. Whatever the reason, and whatever their long-term success, the IPOs are a tribute to the entrepreneurial culture in America, and just what can be achieved away from government interference.
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